FCIJ Business Confidence Survey- Fall 2009

This survey is supported by:

The Foreign Chambers in Japan (FCIJ) is an informal organization comprised of foreign chambers of commerce and business groups in Japan mainly for the purpose of information exchange and enhancement of the activities of the component organizations.

The FCIJ conducted the first Business Confidence survey in April 2002, based on a format developed by the Finnish Chamber of Commerce in Japan (FCCJ). This survey, conducted twice a year, is rapidly becoming a barometer of foreign business in Japan.
This, the sixteenth, survey was conducted between October 13 and 23, 2009.

The survey is headed by a task force consisting of Aron Kremer (ACCJ), Ian de Stains (BCCJ) and Clas G. Bystedt (FCCJ).

The survey was sent to members at 19 organizations representing about 2,150 foreign affiliated companies and received 435 valid responses.

Participating organizations included the ACCJ (American Chamber), ANZCCJ (Australia-New Zealand Chamber), ABC (Austrian Business Council), CCBJ (Brazilian), BCCJ (British Chamber), BLCCJ (Belgian-Luxembourg), CCCJ (Canadian), DCCJ (Danish), DIHKJ (German), FCCJ (Finnish), CCIFJ (French), IJCC (Irish), ICCJ (Italian), ISCCJ (Icelandic), NCCJ (Dutch), NoCCJ (Norwegian), SACCJ (South African) SCCJ (Swedish) and SCCIJ (Swiss).

Although the reported sales and profitability figures for the past six months were still in the red (although less that in the previous survey - Spring 2009), this survey shows that the surveyed companies see some positive developments, both regarding the state of the Japanese economy and their own performance.

The economy for the next 6 months is expected to move into black, +0.25 (compared to -0.44 in spring 2009), and looking 12 months ahead, the companies see a continued turn for the better - the index shows +0.66 (+0.21 in the previous survey). Even more importantly, the forecasts for the coming six months for sales and profitability both show a notable growth. The sales forecast index was +0.47 (previous survey +0.15) and that for profitability +0.40 (+0.13). Only 3% expect a further strong decline in sales and only 4% profitability, while 62% and 55% respectively see strong of some improvement.

Concerning the strategies of the foreign-affiliated companies in Japan, most of them continue to be rather bullish despite experiencing tough times in the last year of so. Two-thirds (66% - same as in the Spring survey) are looking for further growth and 26% expecting to sustain their current level. 6% are planning to downsize, but only 1% (four companies out of the surveyed 435) are considering withdrawing from the market. These results were very much in line with the findings in the previous survey.

This time the two alternating questions were regarding the currency rates (EUR/JPY for Europeans, USD/JPY for the others) and Nikkei index in 6 months time. The average estimate for USD was 91.7 and for the EUR 133.6. Nikkei index is predicted to be at 10,539.

To download the full report, click below:

FCIJ Business Confidence Survey Report - Fall 2009 (1.7 Mb)
The report also includes commentary from Dr. William Schrade, Adjunct Faculty, University of Maryland University College: Asia Division.

Download all comments from respondents:

Other reasons for changes in business performance (15 kb)

Comments regarding changes in business performance (22 kb)

Comments regarding strategies in Japan (19 kb)

General comments (14 kb)

The next survey will be conducted in April 2010. The results from that survey will be published early May 2010.

If you need more information regarding the survey, contact your chamber or the FCCJ Office.
Printed versions of the report are also available at the FCCJ Office for a modest fee.

REPORTS FROM PREVIOUS SURVEYS

Spring 2009

Fall 2008

Spring 2008

Fall 2007

Spring 2007 (pdf)

Fall 2006 (pdf)

Spring 2006 (pdf)

Fall 2005 (pdf)

Spring 2005 (pdf)

Fall 2004 (pdf)

Spring 2004 (pdf)

Fall 2003 (pdf)