
Further to earlier.

The latest polls show that the opposition DPJ will not only win majority but that Sunday's election result will be a landslide - a complete reversal from the LDP landslide win in 2005 under Koizumi leadership. It looks likely that DPJ will gain outright majority - 241 seats - even without its small party allies. Some polls even say DPJ could reach to 320 seats which would give it 2/3 majority, something that would enable it to slam through any new laws it wants without opposition in the Lower House. Yet, party leader and likely new PM Yukio Hatoyama says DPJ will pursue its declared alliance with Social Democrats and Japan New Party however successful it will turn out on its own.

For LDP that has been brought back to rule Japan in every election for 54 years - except for one brief period in the 90's - the Sunday election promises to be a blood bath. The party is expected to lose upto 200 seats of today's 300 it won under Koizumi last time. Losing 2 out of each 3 representant is not only dramatic in numbers but means personal tradegy for many politicians, including famous names in recent political history.
Former ministers, even prime ministers, and famous families who have held their constituencies in 2-3 generations, face threat to disappear from the scene.

The mood of the nation is "enough is enough" and "anybody is better than LDP", more than voters falling for the sweet promises for better personal life and new form of government promised by DPJ. While high numbers in the surveys say they will vote DPJ - and not LDP for the first time in their life - many also say they don't really expect that DPJ will manage to improve their lifes as much as it promises.

And again word of warning: these are just surveys, the actual vote takes place on Sunday all through Japan. The biggest "party" remains that of undecided - upto 40 percent of the voters have not yet fully decided what name they will write down on their voting sheet day after tomorrow.
Especially results from the 280 single seat constituencies are difficult to predict. Voters might go for their old favorite even if they don't like LDP
- and only one man (or woman) goes through. It's like the election system in England and USA. The predictions for the 200 seats elected from 11 regions are easier as there will be many winners from each region - like election system in Finland and many Central European countries.

The real question for us "outsiders" - foreign business society and neighbouring countries - is what kind of new policies will come from the new government and how they will affect our business and our relations.
Predictions and promises are that the changes will not be immediate or dramatic but on longer term there surely will be some changes. Hopefully for the better.

"In politics, it's pitch dark just six inches ahead."
TV 28.08.2009