Let's face it: Hatoyama must go. No question about it any more. Question is just who or what will substitute him. And whether the change will take place after July election or already sooner.

Remember what great expectations we all had last September with the big historical change from 50 years of LDP rule? "Change" was the word - change from party rule to rule by elected government, change to pro-people politics from pro-business only (why Japan cannot combine both?), change to a new popular leader with fresh vision instead of same old grey flannel suits in the smoky back rooms. New era of "open" politics with Anglo style two party contest finally in Japan. No more money scandals. Hatoyama was like Obama, who had been elected US president just before with similar political platform. They would do well together, it was said.

Only half year plus some has passed and there's little talk of "change" any more. On the contrary, things look more and more same as during LDP rule. The only comparison to Obama you hear these days is that it took Obama one year to lose his popularity, but Hatoyama managed to do it in half year! With only 25% public support left from his starting 70% he is about as unpopular as the worst LDP figureheads pushed to PM chair by the back room boys without consulting voters. As for the relation between the two national leaders, the clearest sign was when Obama simply refused to meet Hatoyama for any serious discussion in USA last month at UN nuclear arms conference. "Not another 'trust me' from that guy, please."

The headlines in the national press talk for themselves: "lack of leadership", "flip flopping", "chaos rules",　"a new mess", "common sense gap", "politics before principles". The last one is probably the saddest part: there's a huge gap between the lofty principles that DPJ preached to win the last election and what Hatoyama government has shown in practice. One of them was that the decision making would be done in the government and not by the party bosses behind it. Now it has become obvious to all that Hatoyama is only a puppet to party secretary Ozawa who actually rules Japan like the LDP elders used to rule behind their chosen PM or, earlier, shoguns ruled behind the emperor. That Ozawa is deeply involved in a money scandal but insists to continue "as is", confirms again nothing has changed from LDP times. Sure, it's important for DPJ that the master tactician stays on to guide the party to the ultimate victory in July Upper House election, but even this is putting practical politics ahead of policy principles, exactly what DPJ promised to change.

On the policy front, new bad decisions keep coming, many again to serve the party politics. Some of them can have serious percussions for the nation, the business and the people. Letting Kamei push through his pet project, the Japan Post policy reversal, is one of them. Doubling the deposit limit will create big new flow of funds from private banks to JP Bank that not only twists the financial markets but will help government continue heavy spending despite the already huge national debt load. No doubt some of that money will again find its way to the "right pockets", not only where actually intended. Adding more than 100,000 permanent workers to the government pay rolls is similarly against all DPJ promises to "cut wasteful spending". But it does create a thankful voter base - just like before with Japan Post.

Rolling back reforms and opening the public money valves instead of closing them come at exactly wrong time with the rising turmoil in the global finance markets. Busy with PIGS crisis in Europe, the world has little time for Japan right now, but once the smoke settles. Japan's finance problem (much bigger than PIGS) will come under focus. It's already clear that the world has lost its trust on Japan government. Rating agencies are already threatening with another downgrade and JPY value is getting again under pressure. Still nobody seem to care at Nagatacho, all is now concentrated to win the next election. Looking at this chicanery makes you understand what political kabuki theater for the voters DPJ's television hearings of bureaucrats spending cuts really are. Once again, there is a new season for those - suitably before the forthcoming election and after party itself pushed through the biggest spending budget ever. It's like mother laying a big stolen Christmas ham on the table for kids to eat and then starting count out loudly who eats the beans.

Similar credibility problems show in the foreign trade and security politics. The crucial points in trade are not whaling or tuna fishing in far away places, as you might think by following Japanese media, but the EPA's and FTA's that Japan remains unable to make, even to discuss domestically, because of vested interests like the agriculture lobby still hold grip on politics same as before. No change from LDP there either. Think it was 3 years ago when EU and Japan governments gracefully accepted proposals from the corporate sector Round Table including our own EBC to proceed with EPA nego. No progress ever since. Japan has been passed by other Asian countries as the place to do business in, but again, this notion does not fit on Hatoyama government working table, where highway tolls, one day cutting, next day upping them again, figure more prominent.

Security policy should take seriously the growing tension between China and USA but Japan, who wish to have good relations with both, does not seem to understand this at all. For more than 60 years Japan has been protected by US military presence and the US strategic nuclear umbrella. It has been very comfortable for Japan to save own costs and play global leader for anti-nuclear movement. The time can come soon, when Japan has to put its money where its mouth is. Will there be enough money for child benefits and school support, if you must pay full for your own national defence?

Old Finnish saying goes: "Each country has an army. If you play your cards well, it's your own." If there are no American or Japanese bases in Okinawa, there will be soon Chinese. All the talk of Dragon's "peaceful rise" has not covered its military power ambitions from anybody with eyes to see, not just dream. That China navy, earlier met only in its coastal waters, sails right through Okinawa islands on its way to Pacific Ocean should send warning signals to all. Yes, they are officially international waters, but so is Taiwan Straight where US ships don't dare to go anymore. When Japanese ships who tried to get close to Chinese in their own waters get harassed by Chinese, it shows something about China attitude. "Japanese did not show respectable attitude so it was their own fault", explained Chinese ambassador about the debacle in Tokyo with poker face. Sounds like the barbarian to Romans: "Vae victis" or "Buddy, you lost the game already, so shut up."

Among all this tragicomedy, the Futenma case stands above others in foolishness. It's difficult to think about any case where a national government, not only prime minister but all ministers, have run amok as badly as with this one. Not only did Hatoyama unnecessarily tear up the original relocation plan from 2006 that took 14 years to make but he promised to left and right that he will find an alternative that would please everybody. After that he even set himself a deadline to deliver on his promise and staked his political career on it. Talk about painting yourself in the corner where you cannot escape. After stirring up all and sundry with such unrealistic promises, he could not come up with even one real alternative. Worse, just about every one of his government ministers came up each with their own(!) proposal what kind of helicopter base would be good for the Americans. Some of them even started to negotiate with both Okinawans and Americans on their own. At the end, Hatoyama had to admit he did not have any realistic plan but to more or less go back to the 2006 original and apologize to all whose hopes he had raised in vain. All this while the actual talks with Americans not even started yet. Result is that all parties involved will be left extremely unsatisfied, disappointed and angry - all thanks to Hatoyama talking out his dreams. Yes, this sleep walker has to go.

Americans have shown cool nerves following all this political theatre from the side. For them Futenma is just one step in a row of moves they would like carry out in co-operation with Japan military, in order to reorganize the whole Asia Pacific set up with all their allies in this part of the world. Ironically, some of those moves would see troops being moved away from Okinawa to Guam, but this cannot be done before the Futenma relocation is solved. Let's follow how this story will fold out.

With all this mess, why has Hatoyama government not yet been brought down? Because the opposition LDP is just as much in disarray. In fact, the master tactician Ozawa has been proven right: stripped of its ruling power, LDP is falling to pieces. Disagreements about leadership and direction, have now caused some big names to decide leave the ship. First to go was bunch of old veterans like Yosano and Hiranuma, who set up their own Stand Up Japan party, a rather pathetic bunch of pensioners. While some people before said LDP stands for "Lousy Dumb Party", it was shocking to hear this from Yosano, a long time core member. Next to follow was popular Masuzoe. (He is Japanese people's favorite candidate for next PM!) How many more will there be before the election? What about after election?

Ironically for Ozawa, he is also under pressure to retire just when his old nemesis shows signs of death throes. A citizen committee has reactivated the indictments against him and the prosecutors must proceed to prosecute even if they said they have no case. What will happen to the wily fox from Iwate? Can he stay on to lead party in the "final battle"? Or is he a heavy ballast that should be thrown away to make the DPJ battle wagon lighter?

Sadly, now the biggest party in Japan is not DPJ nor LDP. It is the party of No-Party. So disillusioned people are about politics today, just 8 months after record activity and landslide win for DPJ. The situation is again very fickle. The July election can go any way depending on small things happening between now and then. One of them is the weather on the voting day. If it is sunny, it is likely that the voting rate will remain low as people prefer to play golf rather than politics any more.

Who will rule Japan after July? It's likely that DPJ will remain the main ruling party but what kind of allies, if any, it takes on and who will be the prime minister? If DPJ loses badly, will Hatoyama "take responsibility" and resign? Or will he be voted out only September when DPJ has its party meeting? What kind of new direction, if any, Japan will take?

There's some bright signs in the economy right now, but will people remain confident to spend and investors to invest if this political mess does not stop? Is there hope for better ?